Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific have generated elevated wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and yielding a record-late start with zero hurricanes formed through mid-September 2026 despite five short-lived tropical storms. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, projecting 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period amid continued El Niño strengthening through the peak months. Updated private forecasts have narrowed expectations further to 1–3 hurricanes, consistent with the current Accumulated Cyclone Energy near 7% of average. With the climatological peak passed and hostile steering patterns persisting, trader consensus heavily favors 1–3 total hurricanes or possibly none, though late-season systems remain possible if shear relaxes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien d'ouragans se formeront pendant la saison des ouragans de l'Atlantique en 2026 ?
Combien d'ouragans se formeront pendant la saison des ouragans de l'Atlantique en 2026 ?
1-3 63%
0 35%
4-6 3.4%
7+ <1%
$31,080 Vol.
$31,080 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0
35%
1-3
63%
4-6
3%
7+
<1%
1-3 63%
0 35%
4-6 3.4%
7+ <1%
$31,080 Vol.
$31,080 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0
$16,790 Vol.
35%
1-3
$5,372 Vol.
63%
4-6
$6,694 Vol.
3%
7+
$2,224 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific have generated elevated wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and yielding a record-late start with zero hurricanes formed through mid-September 2026 despite five short-lived tropical storms. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, projecting 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period amid continued El Niño strengthening through the peak months. Updated private forecasts have narrowed expectations further to 1–3 hurricanes, consistent with the current Accumulated Cyclone Energy near 7% of average. With the climatological peak passed and hostile steering patterns persisting, trader consensus heavily favors 1–3 total hurricanes or possibly none, though late-season systems remain possible if shear relaxes.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Marché ouvert : Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volume
$31,080Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific have generated elevated wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and yielding a record-late start with zero hurricanes formed through mid-September 2026 despite five short-lived tropical storms. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, projecting 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period amid continued El Niño strengthening through the peak months. Updated private forecasts have narrowed expectations further to 1–3 hurricanes, consistent with the current Accumulated Cyclone Energy near 7% of average. With the climatological peak passed and hostile steering patterns persisting, trader consensus heavily favors 1–3 total hurricanes or possibly none, though late-season systems remain possible if shear relaxes.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volume
$31,080Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific have generated elevated wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and yielding a record-late start with zero hurricanes formed through mid-September 2026 despite five short-lived tropical storms. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, projecting 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period amid continued El Niño strengthening through the peak months. Updated private forecasts have narrowed expectations further to 1–3 hurricanes, consistent with the current Accumulated Cyclone Energy near 7% of average. With the climatological peak passed and hostile steering patterns persisting, trader consensus heavily favors 1–3 total hurricanes or possibly none, though late-season systems remain possible if shear relaxes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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