Trader consensus on 2026 China landfalls reflects an above-average Northwest Pacific season driven by developing El Niño conditions that favor more frequent genesis and stronger intensification, with China's National Climate Center projecting 7–9 strikes versus the long-term average of roughly seven. Three systems—Maysak, Bavi, and Noul—have already reached the mainland through late July, leaving peak August–September activity ahead when climatological steering often directs western-track storms toward Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hainan. Key variables separating the clustered 5–8+ outcomes include model spread on late-season recurvature versus direct landfall trajectories, sea-surface temperature anomalies sustaining intensity, and any shift in the subtropical ridge that could steer additional cyclones onshore or out to sea. Official monitoring through the remainder of the season will refine these probabilities as new forecasts emerge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de cyclones tropicaux toucheront terre en Chine en 2026 ?
Combien de cyclones tropicaux toucheront terre en Chine en 2026 ?
5 42%
8 39%
Plus de 8 39%
7 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2027
Moins de 5
24%
5
42%
6
32%
7
37%
8
39%
Plus de 8
39%
5 42%
8 39%
Plus de 8 39%
7 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2027
Moins de 5
$92 Vol.
24%
5
$0 Vol.
42%
6
$0 Vol.
32%
7
$0 Vol.
37%
8
$0 Vol.
39%
Plus de 8
$0 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Trader consensus on 2026 China landfalls reflects an above-average Northwest Pacific season driven by developing El Niño conditions that favor more frequent genesis and stronger intensification, with China's National Climate Center projecting 7–9 strikes versus the long-term average of roughly seven. Three systems—Maysak, Bavi, and Noul—have already reached the mainland through late July, leaving peak August–September activity ahead when climatological steering often directs western-track storms toward Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hainan. Key variables separating the clustered 5–8+ outcomes include model spread on late-season recurvature versus direct landfall trajectories, sea-surface temperature anomalies sustaining intensity, and any shift in the subtropical ridge that could steer additional cyclones onshore or out to sea. Official monitoring through the remainder of the season will refine these probabilities as new forecasts emerge.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Marché ouvert : Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$92Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETSource de résolution
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Trader consensus on 2026 China landfalls reflects an above-average Northwest Pacific season driven by developing El Niño conditions that favor more frequent genesis and stronger intensification, with China's National Climate Center projecting 7–9 strikes versus the long-term average of roughly seven. Three systems—Maysak, Bavi, and Noul—have already reached the mainland through late July, leaving peak August–September activity ahead when climatological steering often directs western-track storms toward Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hainan. Key variables separating the clustered 5–8+ outcomes include model spread on late-season recurvature versus direct landfall trajectories, sea-surface temperature anomalies sustaining intensity, and any shift in the subtropical ridge that could steer additional cyclones onshore or out to sea. Official monitoring through the remainder of the season will refine these probabilities as new forecasts emerge.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$92Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETSource de résolution
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on 2026 China landfalls reflects an above-average Northwest Pacific season driven by developing El Niño conditions that favor more frequent genesis and stronger intensification, with China's National Climate Center projecting 7–9 strikes versus the long-term average of roughly seven. Three systems—Maysak, Bavi, and Noul—have already reached the mainland through late July, leaving peak August–September activity ahead when climatological steering often directs western-track storms toward Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hainan. Key variables separating the clustered 5–8+ outcomes include model spread on late-season recurvature versus direct landfall trajectories, sea-surface temperature anomalies sustaining intensity, and any shift in the subtropical ridge that could steer additional cyclones onshore or out to sea. Official monitoring through the remainder of the season will refine these probabilities as new forecasts emerge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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