Incumbent Jim Risch secured reelection in Idaho's U.S. Senate race with roughly 55-56% of the vote against independent Todd Achilles at 34-36%, consistent with the market's 100% consensus on Risch. Idaho's strong Republican lean, Risch's long tenure since 2009, and superior fundraising of nearly $4 million provided structural advantages over Achilles, a former Democratic state lawmaker running independently after the Democratic candidate withdrew. Polling averages showed Risch ahead, though some surveys indicated a narrower contest late in the cycle. The outcome aligns with historical patterns for GOP incumbents in the state, where third-party or independent challenges have rarely overcome party loyalty and turnout advantages. Scenarios that could have altered the result include major late shifts in voter sentiment or unusually high independent turnout, but the margin held after election night projections. Official certification is scheduled for November 24.