**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” because Imran Khan’s two principal convictions—a 14-year sentence in the Al-Qadir Trust case and a 17-year sentence in the Toshakhana matter—remain under appeal with no resolution timeline that would allow release before the end of 2026.** Islamabad High Court proceedings on those appeals have advanced slowly, while bail applications in related cases have produced only limited or conditional relief that does not override the active sentences. Government statements continue to tie any outcome strictly to the judicial process, and recent Supreme Court orders for an independent medical examination have faced implementation delays and review petitions. These factors, alongside the broader institutional preference for keeping a major political challenger sidelined, underpin the current market pricing. A successful appeal overturn, approved medical release, or negotiated accommodation before the deadline would still be required to shift the odds materially.