**India's annual CPI inflation for 2026 trades with an 79.5% implied probability above 4.50%, driven by the recent climb in headline readings to 4.45% in July 2026 from 4.38% in June.** Persistent food and energy price pressures linked to Middle East geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil costs, and rupee volatility have prompted the RBI to revise its FY27 average inflation forecast upward to around 5.0–5.1%, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%. After earlier benign readings below 3% in 2025, the shift above the 4% target has anchored trader expectations for a sustained elevated path through year-end, supported by RBI's neutral policy stance at 5.25% and evenly balanced risks. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, monsoon outcomes, and global commodity developments that could influence the final annual average.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4,50 % + 80%
3,75 % à 4,49 % 13.3%
<0,75 % 3.8%
3,00 % à 3,74 % 3.0%
$78,025 Vol.
$78,025 Vol.
12 janv. 2027
<0,75 %
4%
0,75 % à 1,49 %
<1%
1,50 % à 2,24 %
1%
2,25 % à 2,99 %
1%
3,00 % à 3,74 %
3%
3,75 % à 4,49 %
13%
4,50 % +
80%
4,50 % + 80%
3,75 % à 4,49 % 13.3%
<0,75 % 3.8%
3,00 % à 3,74 % 3.0%
$78,025 Vol.
$78,025 Vol.
12 janv. 2027
<0,75 %
$1,769 Vol.
4%
0,75 % à 1,49 %
$1,191 Vol.
<1%
1,50 % à 2,24 %
$1,265 Vol.
1%
2,25 % à 2,99 %
$24,989 Vol.
1%
3,00 % à 3,74 %
$2,081 Vol.
3%
3,75 % à 4,49 %
$29,492 Vol.
13%
4,50 % +
$17,238 Vol.
80%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf**India's annual CPI inflation for 2026 trades with an 79.5% implied probability above 4.50%, driven by the recent climb in headline readings to 4.45% in July 2026 from 4.38% in June.** Persistent food and energy price pressures linked to Middle East geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil costs, and rupee volatility have prompted the RBI to revise its FY27 average inflation forecast upward to around 5.0–5.1%, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%. After earlier benign readings below 3% in 2025, the shift above the 4% target has anchored trader expectations for a sustained elevated path through year-end, supported by RBI's neutral policy stance at 5.25% and evenly balanced risks. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, monsoon outcomes, and global commodity developments that could influence the final annual average.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$78,025Date de fin
12 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf**India's annual CPI inflation for 2026 trades with an 79.5% implied probability above 4.50%, driven by the recent climb in headline readings to 4.45% in July 2026 from 4.38% in June.** Persistent food and energy price pressures linked to Middle East geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil costs, and rupee volatility have prompted the RBI to revise its FY27 average inflation forecast upward to around 5.0–5.1%, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%. After earlier benign readings below 3% in 2025, the shift above the 4% target has anchored trader expectations for a sustained elevated path through year-end, supported by RBI's neutral policy stance at 5.25% and evenly balanced risks. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, monsoon outcomes, and global commodity developments that could influence the final annual average.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$78,025Date de fin
12 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**India's annual CPI inflation for 2026 trades with an 79.5% implied probability above 4.50%, driven by the recent climb in headline readings to 4.45% in July 2026 from 4.38% in June.** Persistent food and energy price pressures linked to Middle East geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil costs, and rupee volatility have prompted the RBI to revise its FY27 average inflation forecast upward to around 5.0–5.1%, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%. After earlier benign readings below 3% in 2025, the shift above the 4% target has anchored trader expectations for a sustained elevated path through year-end, supported by RBI's neutral policy stance at 5.25% and evenly balanced risks. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, monsoon outcomes, and global commodity developments that could influence the final annual average.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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