Polymarket traders assign an 83% implied probability to India 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50%, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 4.6% average CPI for FY27 (April 2026–March 2027), amid West Asia geopolitical risks elevating energy and commodity costs. This trader consensus reflects April's CPI reading of 3.48%—a sixth consecutive monthly rise from March's 3.40%—fueled by food inflation surging to 4.20% on vegetable spikes like tomatoes, while core pressures persist within the RBI's 4% target band (±2%). Lower buckets trail due to fading disinflation hopes, with key catalysts including May CPI data release in mid-June and the June RBI policy meeting assessing rate path amid robust GDP growth.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4,50 % + 82%
2,25 % à 2,99 % 6.5%
<0,75 % 4.0%
0,75 % à 1,49 % 2.8%
$60,464 Vol.
$60,464 Vol.
12 janv. 2027
<0,75 %
4%
0,75 % à 1,49 %
3%
1,50 % à 2,24 %
3%
2,25 % à 2,99 %
7%
3,00 % à 3,74 %
8%
3,75 % à 4,49 %
2%
4,50 % +
82%
4,50 % + 82%
2,25 % à 2,99 % 6.5%
<0,75 % 4.0%
0,75 % à 1,49 % 2.8%
$60,464 Vol.
$60,464 Vol.
12 janv. 2027
<0,75 %
$806 Vol.
4%
0,75 % à 1,49 %
$525 Vol.
3%
1,50 % à 2,24 %
$415 Vol.
3%
2,25 % à 2,99 %
$23,739 Vol.
7%
3,00 % à 3,74 %
$517 Vol.
8%
3,75 % à 4,49 %
$23,208 Vol.
2%
4,50 % +
$11,254 Vol.
82%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfPolymarket traders assign an 83% implied probability to India 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50%, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 4.6% average CPI for FY27 (April 2026–March 2027), amid West Asia geopolitical risks elevating energy and commodity costs. This trader consensus reflects April's CPI reading of 3.48%—a sixth consecutive monthly rise from March's 3.40%—fueled by food inflation surging to 4.20% on vegetable spikes like tomatoes, while core pressures persist within the RBI's 4% target band (±2%). Lower buckets trail due to fading disinflation hopes, with key catalysts including May CPI data release in mid-June and the June RBI policy meeting assessing rate path amid robust GDP growth.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$60,464Date de fin
12 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfPolymarket traders assign an 83% implied probability to India 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50%, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 4.6% average CPI for FY27 (April 2026–March 2027), amid West Asia geopolitical risks elevating energy and commodity costs. This trader consensus reflects April's CPI reading of 3.48%—a sixth consecutive monthly rise from March's 3.40%—fueled by food inflation surging to 4.20% on vegetable spikes like tomatoes, while core pressures persist within the RBI's 4% target band (±2%). Lower buckets trail due to fading disinflation hopes, with key catalysts including May CPI data release in mid-June and the June RBI policy meeting assessing rate path amid robust GDP growth.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$60,464Date de fin
12 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign an 83% implied probability to India 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50%, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 4.6% average CPI for FY27 (April 2026–March 2027), amid West Asia geopolitical risks elevating energy and commodity costs. This trader consensus reflects April's CPI reading of 3.48%—a sixth consecutive monthly rise from March's 3.40%—fueled by food inflation surging to 4.20% on vegetable spikes like tomatoes, while core pressures persist within the RBI's 4% target band (±2%). Lower buckets trail due to fading disinflation hopes, with key catalysts including May CPI data release in mid-June and the June RBI policy meeting assessing rate path amid robust GDP growth.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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