**President Trump's January 2026 threat to invoke the Insurrection Act amid escalating anti-ICE protests in Minneapolis—sparked by federal agent shootings and clashes with local law enforcement—continues to shape trader consensus on this rarely used authority empowering domestic military deployment without state consent or congressional approval.** No invocation has occurred despite Minnesota Governor Tim Walz's counter-threat to mobilize the state National Guard against federal officers, while a Supreme Court ruling blocking a related National Guard deployment may have heightened reliance on the Act. Congressional reform efforts, including the 2025 Insurrection Act bill (S.2070) to impose limits, add procedural hurdles. Ongoing immigration enforcement tensions and urban protests, such as recent New York City demonstrations, keep probabilities alive, though low odds reflect legal and political barriers absent major unrest escalation before year-end resolution.