Recent diplomatic mediation led by Qatar and Pakistan has produced draft frameworks for an interim US-Iran arrangement that would cap enrichment at 3.67 percent, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade, and release several billion dollars in frozen Iranian assets. Central to these talks is Iran's approximately 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. Washington has pressed for the stockpile to be diluted or transferred abroad under IAEA oversight, while Iranian officials, including security chief Mohsen Rezaei and Foreign Ministry spokesmen, have repeatedly stated that no enriched material will leave the country, citing a Supreme Leader directive and domestic nuclear needs. Trader consensus around low single-digit probabilities reflects these explicit refusals and the absence of any public pledge or agreement meeting resolution criteria by year-end. Further progress hinges on whether phased inspections or on-site downblending can bridge the gap before December 31.