Iran and Oman have advanced bilateral talks on Strait of Hormuz navigation, including a potential temporary shipping corridor and joint mine-clearance measures, with Iranian officials stating on November 13 that an in-principle agreement on routes is nearly complete. These discussions occur while the waterway remains effectively restricted, with commercial traffic at roughly 8% of pre-crisis levels and Iran continuing to require permits, assert sovereignty over territorial waters, and link any broader reopening to fulfillment of conditions from the June Islamabad memorandum. Recent joint statements and ministerial visits have emphasized phased arrangements respecting coastal-state authority, yet no full lifting of the U.S. naval blockade or Iranian restrictions has followed. Traders therefore assign a 73% implied probability that the blockade will not be lifted ahead of any Iran-Oman accord, reflecting the conditional nature of diplomatic progress amid ongoing enforcement actions.