Iran faces heightened internal tensions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders, leading to Mojtaba Khamenei's succession via constitutional processes. Hardline factions have repeatedly warned of a "soft coup" by security council figures and moderates sidelining radicals, while recent military appointments consolidated IRGC and armed forces leadership under the new supreme leader. Growing anti-government protests over inflation and economic hardship have escalated into clashes, prompting intensified crackdowns, internet restrictions, and accusations of external backing by the U.S. and Israel. Exiled opposition voices like Reza Pahlavi have called for coordinated uprisings, coinciding with post-U.S. midterm uncertainty over renewed strikes or diplomacy. These power consolidation moves, factional accusations, and street unrest form the core drivers of trader assessments around any coup attempt dynamics.