The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered a swift constitutional transition, with the Assembly of Experts naming his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor within days. Power has since dispersed among senior IRGC commanders and security officials, while Mojtaba has remained largely absent from public view, fueling questions about his day-to-day authority and the regime’s cohesion under ongoing military pressure. Domestic protests, economic strain, and diplomatic negotiations continue to test institutional stability, with traders pricing in a moderate probability of further leadership adjustment by year-end as the new arrangement faces both internal hardliner consolidation and external escalation risks.