Recent polling averages position Amcha Yisrael near or just above Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, with most surveys projecting four Knesset seats and placing its vote share in the 3.5–4.5% band. Launched in late August 2026 by reserve Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, the party appeals to voters seeking a harder security line after October 7 while drawing support from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. Its independent run has intensified right-wing fragmentation, prompting warnings from Netanyahu about wasted votes below the threshold. September polls show continued volatility, with the party clearing the bar in roughly half the surveys amid campaign friction and competition from other small lists. Trader consensus therefore clusters on the 4–5% interval as the most probable outcome, while acknowledging the inherent uncertainty of small-party polling this close to the October 27 election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour<2,5 % 28%
3,25-4 % 25%
4-5 % 22%
2,5-3,25 % 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
<2,5 %
16%
2,5-3,25 %
24%
3,25-4 %
30%
4-5 %
36%
5 %+
14%
<2,5 % 28%
3,25-4 % 25%
4-5 % 22%
2,5-3,25 % 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
<2,5 %
$231 Vol.
16%
2,5-3,25 %
$52 Vol.
24%
3,25-4 %
$76 Vol.
30%
4-5 %
$23 Vol.
36%
5 %+
$101 Vol.
14%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages position Amcha Yisrael near or just above Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, with most surveys projecting four Knesset seats and placing its vote share in the 3.5–4.5% band. Launched in late August 2026 by reserve Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, the party appeals to voters seeking a harder security line after October 7 while drawing support from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. Its independent run has intensified right-wing fragmentation, prompting warnings from Netanyahu about wasted votes below the threshold. September polls show continued volatility, with the party clearing the bar in roughly half the surveys amid campaign friction and competition from other small lists. Trader consensus therefore clusters on the 4–5% interval as the most probable outcome, while acknowledging the inherent uncertainty of small-party polling this close to the October 27 election.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Marché ouvert : Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$483Date de fin
30 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages position Amcha Yisrael near or just above Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, with most surveys projecting four Knesset seats and placing its vote share in the 3.5–4.5% band. Launched in late August 2026 by reserve Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, the party appeals to voters seeking a harder security line after October 7 while drawing support from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. Its independent run has intensified right-wing fragmentation, prompting warnings from Netanyahu about wasted votes below the threshold. September polls show continued volatility, with the party clearing the bar in roughly half the surveys amid campaign friction and competition from other small lists. Trader consensus therefore clusters on the 4–5% interval as the most probable outcome, while acknowledging the inherent uncertainty of small-party polling this close to the October 27 election.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$483Date de fin
30 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages position Amcha Yisrael near or just above Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, with most surveys projecting four Knesset seats and placing its vote share in the 3.5–4.5% band. Launched in late August 2026 by reserve Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, the party appeals to voters seeking a harder security line after October 7 while drawing support from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. Its independent run has intensified right-wing fragmentation, prompting warnings from Netanyahu about wasted votes below the threshold. September polls show continued volatility, with the party clearing the bar in roughly half the surveys amid campaign friction and competition from other small lists. Trader consensus therefore clusters on the 4–5% interval as the most probable outcome, while acknowledging the inherent uncertainty of small-party polling this close to the October 27 election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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