Recent polling averages place Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, in the 7–9 seat range ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, aligning with the market’s heaviest probability on 8–9 seats. Traders appear to weigh consistent survey results from outlets such as Channel 13, Kantar, and Midgam showing Shas holding steady or dipping modestly amid competition from United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionist lists for overlapping religious voters. Coalition strains, including earlier Haredi party withdrawals, have not produced a clear rebound for Shas, while overall right-wing bloc totals remain below the 61-seat threshold in most aggregates. Surplus-vote agreements and turnout among core Sephardi Haredi communities remain the primary variables that could shift final seat counts within the narrow band reflected in current pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour8-9 44%
10-11 26%
6-7 18%
12+ 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
<6
5%
6-7
18%
8-9
44%
10-11
21%
12+
10%
8-9 44%
10-11 26%
6-7 18%
12+ 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
<6
$485 Vol.
5%
6-7
$1,392 Vol.
18%
8-9
$939 Vol.
44%
10-11
$740 Vol.
21%
12+
$1,573 Vol.
10%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages place Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, in the 7–9 seat range ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, aligning with the market’s heaviest probability on 8–9 seats. Traders appear to weigh consistent survey results from outlets such as Channel 13, Kantar, and Midgam showing Shas holding steady or dipping modestly amid competition from United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionist lists for overlapping religious voters. Coalition strains, including earlier Haredi party withdrawals, have not produced a clear rebound for Shas, while overall right-wing bloc totals remain below the 61-seat threshold in most aggregates. Surplus-vote agreements and turnout among core Sephardi Haredi communities remain the primary variables that could shift final seat counts within the narrow band reflected in current pricing.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Marché ouvert : Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Volume
$5,130Date de fin
27 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages place Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, in the 7–9 seat range ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, aligning with the market’s heaviest probability on 8–9 seats. Traders appear to weigh consistent survey results from outlets such as Channel 13, Kantar, and Midgam showing Shas holding steady or dipping modestly amid competition from United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionist lists for overlapping religious voters. Coalition strains, including earlier Haredi party withdrawals, have not produced a clear rebound for Shas, while overall right-wing bloc totals remain below the 61-seat threshold in most aggregates. Surplus-vote agreements and turnout among core Sephardi Haredi communities remain the primary variables that could shift final seat counts within the narrow band reflected in current pricing.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$5,130Date de fin
27 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, in the 7–9 seat range ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, aligning with the market’s heaviest probability on 8–9 seats. Traders appear to weigh consistent survey results from outlets such as Channel 13, Kantar, and Midgam showing Shas holding steady or dipping modestly amid competition from United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionist lists for overlapping religious voters. Coalition strains, including earlier Haredi party withdrawals, have not produced a clear rebound for Shas, while overall right-wing bloc totals remain below the 61-seat threshold in most aggregates. Surplus-vote agreements and turnout among core Sephardi Haredi communities remain the primary variables that could shift final seat counts within the narrow band reflected in current pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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