**The Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization, with the September 2026 rate hike to 1.25% and signals of further tightening to combat persistent inflation near or above the 2% target, is the primary driver positioning the 3.0%+ outcome for the Japan 10-year government bond yield at year-end 2026 as the market leader at 67.3% implied probability.** Yields have traded near multi-decade highs around 2.98–3.0% in recent sessions, supported by elevated fiscal spending requests under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a weak yen, and alignment with higher U.S. Treasury yields. Traders view these factors as sustaining upward pressure through year-end, though moderating oil prices and any dovish BOJ guidance could cap gains. The next policy meetings and inflation data releases remain key near-term catalysts influencing the path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour3.0%+ 67.3%
2.8-3.0% 18.0%
2.4-2.6% 6.8%
2.6-2.8% 2.9%
$29,873 Vol.
$29,873 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
18%
3.0%+
67%
3.0%+ 67.3%
2.8-3.0% 18.0%
2.4-2.6% 6.8%
2.6-2.8% 2.9%
$29,873 Vol.
$29,873 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
<2.0%
$1,370 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,701 Vol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,263 Vol.
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,562 Vol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,556 Vol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,716 Vol.
18%
3.0%+
$11,705 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.**The Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization, with the September 2026 rate hike to 1.25% and signals of further tightening to combat persistent inflation near or above the 2% target, is the primary driver positioning the 3.0%+ outcome for the Japan 10-year government bond yield at year-end 2026 as the market leader at 67.3% implied probability.**
Yields have traded near multi-decade highs around 2.98–3.0% in recent sessions, supported by elevated fiscal spending requests under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a weak yen, and alignment with higher U.S. Treasury yields. Traders view these factors as sustaining upward pressure through year-end, though moderating oil prices and any dovish BOJ guidance could cap gains. The next policy meetings and inflation data releases remain key near-term catalysts influencing the path.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Marché ouvert : Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,873Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.**The Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization, with the September 2026 rate hike to 1.25% and signals of further tightening to combat persistent inflation near or above the 2% target, is the primary driver positioning the 3.0%+ outcome for the Japan 10-year government bond yield at year-end 2026 as the market leader at 67.3% implied probability.**
Yields have traded near multi-decade highs around 2.98–3.0% in recent sessions, supported by elevated fiscal spending requests under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a weak yen, and alignment with higher U.S. Treasury yields. Traders view these factors as sustaining upward pressure through year-end, though moderating oil prices and any dovish BOJ guidance could cap gains. The next policy meetings and inflation data releases remain key near-term catalysts influencing the path.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volume
$29,873Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**The Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization, with the September 2026 rate hike to 1.25% and signals of further tightening to combat persistent inflation near or above the 2% target, is the primary driver positioning the 3.0%+ outcome for the Japan 10-year government bond yield at year-end 2026 as the market leader at 67.3% implied probability.** Yields have traded near multi-decade highs around 2.98–3.0% in recent sessions, supported by elevated fiscal spending requests under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a weak yen, and alignment with higher U.S. Treasury yields. Traders view these factors as sustaining upward pressure through year-end, though moderating oil prices and any dovish BOJ guidance could cap gains. The next policy meetings and inflation data releases remain key near-term catalysts influencing the path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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