Recent surges in the Japan 10-year government bond yield to around 3.0% reflect persistent inflation pressures from elevated oil prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, alongside the Bank of Japan’s anticipated policy rate increase to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting. Traders price in further gradual tightening through year-end as underlying CPI approaches the 2% target, supported by yen weakness and fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Takaichi that raises JGB supply concerns. These factors have lifted the market-implied probability of yields ending 2026 at 3.0% or higher to 66.3%, consistent with the current term premium and global yield repricing. Key near-term catalysts include the BOJ’s post-meeting guidance and October inflation data, while any moderation in energy costs could ease upward pressure on the curve.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 16.7%
2.2-2.4% 4.3%
2.6-2.8% 2.5%
$29,291 Vol.
$29,291 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
4%
2.4-2.6%
6%
2.6-2.8%
2%
2.8-3.0%
17%
3.0%+
66%
3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 16.7%
2.2-2.4% 4.3%
2.6-2.8% 2.5%
$29,291 Vol.
$29,291 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
<2.0%
$1,360 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,684 Vol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,253 Vol.
4%
2.4-2.6%
$2,552 Vol.
6%
2.6-2.8%
$2,546 Vol.
2%
2.8-3.0%
$8,706 Vol.
17%
3.0%+
$11,189 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent surges in the Japan 10-year government bond yield to around 3.0% reflect persistent inflation pressures from elevated oil prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, alongside the Bank of Japan’s anticipated policy rate increase to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting. Traders price in further gradual tightening through year-end as underlying CPI approaches the 2% target, supported by yen weakness and fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Takaichi that raises JGB supply concerns. These factors have lifted the market-implied probability of yields ending 2026 at 3.0% or higher to 66.3%, consistent with the current term premium and global yield repricing. Key near-term catalysts include the BOJ’s post-meeting guidance and October inflation data, while any moderation in energy costs could ease upward pressure on the curve.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Marché ouvert : Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,291Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent surges in the Japan 10-year government bond yield to around 3.0% reflect persistent inflation pressures from elevated oil prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, alongside the Bank of Japan’s anticipated policy rate increase to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting. Traders price in further gradual tightening through year-end as underlying CPI approaches the 2% target, supported by yen weakness and fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Takaichi that raises JGB supply concerns. These factors have lifted the market-implied probability of yields ending 2026 at 3.0% or higher to 66.3%, consistent with the current term premium and global yield repricing. Key near-term catalysts include the BOJ’s post-meeting guidance and October inflation data, while any moderation in energy costs could ease upward pressure on the curve.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volume
$29,291Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent surges in the Japan 10-year government bond yield to around 3.0% reflect persistent inflation pressures from elevated oil prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, alongside the Bank of Japan’s anticipated policy rate increase to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting. Traders price in further gradual tightening through year-end as underlying CPI approaches the 2% target, supported by yen weakness and fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Takaichi that raises JGB supply concerns. These factors have lifted the market-implied probability of yields ending 2026 at 3.0% or higher to 66.3%, consistent with the current term premium and global yield repricing. Key near-term catalysts include the BOJ’s post-meeting guidance and October inflation data, while any moderation in energy costs could ease upward pressure on the curve.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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