The closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell's handling of Federal Reserve headquarters renovations on April 24, 2026, without charges underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Traders price in the absence of any ongoing federal probes, congressional referrals, or inspector general findings that could trigger indictments, reinforced by Powell's transition to a board role after his chair term ended in May. With no new prosecutorial activity reported since the probe's referral to internal review, real-money consensus reflects the low base rate for such outcomes against senior central bankers absent extraordinary evidence. Tail risks remain narrow, limited to unforeseen developments such as revived allegations or unrelated matters surfacing before year-end 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJérôme Powell en prison avant 2027 ?
Jérôme Powell en prison avant 2027 ?
Oui
2% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
2% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell's handling of Federal Reserve headquarters renovations on April 24, 2026, without charges underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Traders price in the absence of any ongoing federal probes, congressional referrals, or inspector general findings that could trigger indictments, reinforced by Powell's transition to a board role after his chair term ended in May. With no new prosecutorial activity reported since the probe's referral to internal review, real-money consensus reflects the low base rate for such outcomes against senior central bankers absent extraordinary evidence. Tail risks remain narrow, limited to unforeseen developments such as revived allegations or unrelated matters surfacing before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volume
$5,637Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell's handling of Federal Reserve headquarters renovations on April 24, 2026, without charges underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Traders price in the absence of any ongoing federal probes, congressional referrals, or inspector general findings that could trigger indictments, reinforced by Powell's transition to a board role after his chair term ended in May. With no new prosecutorial activity reported since the probe's referral to internal review, real-money consensus reflects the low base rate for such outcomes against senior central bankers absent extraordinary evidence. Tail risks remain narrow, limited to unforeseen developments such as revived allegations or unrelated matters surfacing before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,637Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell's handling of Federal Reserve headquarters renovations on April 24, 2026, without charges underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Traders price in the absence of any ongoing federal probes, congressional referrals, or inspector general findings that could trigger indictments, reinforced by Powell's transition to a board role after his chair term ended in May. With no new prosecutorial activity reported since the probe's referral to internal review, real-money consensus reflects the low base rate for such outcomes against senior central bankers absent extraordinary evidence. Tail risks remain narrow, limited to unforeseen developments such as revived allegations or unrelated matters surfacing before year-end 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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