The Justice Department's April 2026 decision to drop its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on headquarters renovations—after a federal judge ruled prosecutors presented "essentially zero evidence" of any crime—has anchored trader consensus at a 98.1% implied probability that Powell will not serve jail time before 2027. The probe, centered on cost overruns exceeding $700 million on the roughly $2.5 billion project, reflected political friction over monetary policy independence rather than substantiated misconduct, consistent with historical precedent for senior central bankers. Powell transitioned from chair to Board of Governors member in May 2026 without further enforcement actions. Remote tail risks include novel executive-branch pressure or fabricated charges in a polarized climate, though institutional safeguards and the absence of supporting evidence in regulatory or court records limit their likelihood.