Lai Jui-lung holds an 85.5% implied probability in the Kaohsiung mayoral race because the DPP maintains strong local continuity after eight years under outgoing mayor Chen Chi-mai, whose tech and infrastructure record Lai has pledged to extend. Recent televised forums and debates in mid-November centered on AI data centers, semiconductor expansion, a proposed overnight airport, and industrial upgrading funds, where Lai positioned himself as the direct successor while Ko Chih-en (15.2%) emphasized cross-party governance and support for traditional manufacturing to reverse population loss. Late-October ballot draws and multiple polls through early November showed Lai ahead by single or low double digits, narrowing but not erasing the gap. The Nov. 28 election date leaves limited time for major shifts before resolution.