Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 89% implied probability in the Keelung mayoral race for Taiwan's November 28, 2026 local elections, reflecting trader assessments of his incumbency advantage, successful defense against a 2024 recall vote, and KMT organizational strength across most county-level contests. Recent polling from late July showed a narrower margin of roughly 2.5 points over DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei amid 25% undecided voters, yet market pricing indicates limited movement from that snapshot. Tung Tzu-wei sits at 7.5%, consistent with the opposition's challenges in this northern Taiwan city. Multiple low-volume or placeholder candidates register around 50% or lower, underscoring the two-candidate focus. Upcoming campaign events and any shifts in undecided support remain key variables before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2027
Hsieh Kuo-liang
89%
Tung Tzu-wei
8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2027
Hsieh Kuo-liang
$875 Vol.
89%
Tung Tzu-wei
$315 Vol.
8%
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 89% implied probability in the Keelung mayoral race for Taiwan's November 28, 2026 local elections, reflecting trader assessments of his incumbency advantage, successful defense against a 2024 recall vote, and KMT organizational strength across most county-level contests. Recent polling from late July showed a narrower margin of roughly 2.5 points over DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei amid 25% undecided voters, yet market pricing indicates limited movement from that snapshot. Tung Tzu-wei sits at 7.5%, consistent with the opposition's challenges in this northern Taiwan city. Multiple low-volume or placeholder candidates register around 50% or lower, underscoring the two-candidate focus. Upcoming campaign events and any shifts in undecided support remain key variables before election day.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ET
Volume
$1,190Date de fin
28 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 89% implied probability in the Keelung mayoral race for Taiwan's November 28, 2026 local elections, reflecting trader assessments of his incumbency advantage, successful defense against a 2024 recall vote, and KMT organizational strength across most county-level contests. Recent polling from late July showed a narrower margin of roughly 2.5 points over DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei amid 25% undecided voters, yet market pricing indicates limited movement from that snapshot. Tung Tzu-wei sits at 7.5%, consistent with the opposition's challenges in this northern Taiwan city. Multiple low-volume or placeholder candidates register around 50% or lower, underscoring the two-candidate focus. Upcoming campaign events and any shifts in undecided support remain key variables before election day.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$1,190Date de fin
28 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 89% implied probability in the Keelung mayoral race for Taiwan's November 28, 2026 local elections, reflecting trader assessments of his incumbency advantage, successful defense against a 2024 recall vote, and KMT organizational strength across most county-level contests. Recent polling from late July showed a narrower margin of roughly 2.5 points over DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei amid 25% undecided voters, yet market pricing indicates limited movement from that snapshot. Tung Tzu-wei sits at 7.5%, consistent with the opposition's challenges in this northern Taiwan city. Multiple low-volume or placeholder candidates register around 50% or lower, underscoring the two-candidate focus. Upcoming campaign events and any shifts in undecided support remain key variables before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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