Rafael López Aliaga holds a commanding lead in the Lima mayoral market as the effective frontrunner for Renovación Popular ahead of the October 4 election. Recent Jurado Nacional de Elecciones rulings confirmed his eligibility to run as first regidor after earlier challenges over his senator-elect status were resolved, positioning him to assume the mayoralty if his list prevails following the resignation of the original mayoral candidate. Mid-September IEP polling shows him at 20.1% and Carlos Bruce of Somos Perú at 17.1% in a tight technical tie, with all other candidates below 5%. Traders appear to price in López Aliaga’s stronger organizational base and momentum in the capital despite the fragmented field and security concerns dominating voter priorities. Upcoming debates and final campaign weeks could still shift preferences among undecided voters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRafael López Aliaga 73.4%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 19.4%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.8%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 2.4%
$148,812 Vol.
$148,812 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
73%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
19%
Francis James Allison Oyague
3%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 73.4%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 19.4%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.8%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 2.4%
$148,812 Vol.
$148,812 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
73%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
19%
Francis James Allison Oyague
3%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Rafael López Aliaga holds a commanding lead in the Lima mayoral market as the effective frontrunner for Renovación Popular ahead of the October 4 election. Recent Jurado Nacional de Elecciones rulings confirmed his eligibility to run as first regidor after earlier challenges over his senator-elect status were resolved, positioning him to assume the mayoralty if his list prevails following the resignation of the original mayoral candidate. Mid-September IEP polling shows him at 20.1% and Carlos Bruce of Somos Perú at 17.1% in a tight technical tie, with all other candidates below 5%. Traders appear to price in López Aliaga’s stronger organizational base and momentum in the capital despite the fragmented field and security concerns dominating voter priorities. Upcoming debates and final campaign weeks could still shift preferences among undecided voters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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