Rafael López Aliaga’s Renovación Popular list holds a commanding position in the Lima mayoral race ahead of the October 4, 2026, election. Recent Jurado Nacional de Elecciones rulings confirmed his eligibility to run as first regidor despite prior senator-elect status, clearing the path for automatic assumption of the mayoralty if the ticket prevails under municipal law. Early September polling averages showed his slate ahead of rivals such as Carlos Bruce and Daniel Urresti, while scheduled candidate debates on September 21–22 offer limited remaining opportunities for shifts. Traders price this outcome at 74.6 percent, reflecting the combination of institutional clearance, name recognition from López Aliaga’s prior mayoral term, and the structural mechanics of list-based municipal contests. Lower probabilities for other named candidates align with their weaker polling and organizational reach.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRafael López Aliaga 74.2%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 21.9%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 2.6%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.2%
$151,379 Vol.
$151,379 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
74%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
22%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
3%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 74.2%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 21.9%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 2.6%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.2%
$151,379 Vol.
$151,379 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
74%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
22%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
3%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Rafael López Aliaga’s Renovación Popular list holds a commanding position in the Lima mayoral race ahead of the October 4, 2026, election. Recent Jurado Nacional de Elecciones rulings confirmed his eligibility to run as first regidor despite prior senator-elect status, clearing the path for automatic assumption of the mayoralty if the ticket prevails under municipal law. Early September polling averages showed his slate ahead of rivals such as Carlos Bruce and Daniel Urresti, while scheduled candidate debates on September 21–22 offer limited remaining opportunities for shifts. Traders price this outcome at 74.6 percent, reflecting the combination of institutional clearance, name recognition from López Aliaga’s prior mayoral term, and the structural mechanics of list-based municipal contests. Lower probabilities for other named candidates align with their weaker polling and organizational reach.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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