Current forecast models for Shanghai on July 10 indicate overnight lows near 26–27°C as the Meiyu rainy season concludes, shifting toward clearer but still humid summer conditions with potential scattered thunderstorms. This timing introduces variability in radiative cooling and cloud cover that can shift the daily minimum by 1–2°C, supporting the closely matched market probabilities across 25–27°C outcomes. Historical July climatology shows average lows of 25–27°C, with recent observations confirming persistent high humidity that limits nighttime temperature drops even under partial clearing. Traders are weighting ensemble model spreads from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration, where differences in predicted precipitation timing and wind patterns create the observed distribution. Updated guidance expected within 48 hours could narrow the range ahead of resolution.