Emmanuel Macron’s second presidential term is scheduled to conclude in May 2027 under France’s constitutional two-consecutive-term limit, with the next election on a fixed calendar. Recent weeks have featured student protests, repeated prime ministerial turnover, and fiscal strain including elevated bond yields and public debt above 119 percent of GDP, prompting opposition calls for an early departure that Macron has rejected while emphasizing continuity. Trader consensus on Polymarket places only a low single-digit implied probability on his exit before year-end 2026, reflecting the absence of confirmed resignation signals, successful no-confidence mechanisms, or acute institutional breakdown capable of forcing an immediate transition. Scheduled budget debates and the approach of the 2027 contest remain the principal near-term variables.