**Maduro faces U.S. federal charges of narco-terrorism, cocaine trafficking, and weapons offenses after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas during a military operation.** He and his wife remain in pretrial detention at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center, with a June 2027 trial date set and defense motions on head-of-state immunity plus the legality of his seizure scheduled for oral argument in November 2026. Traders assign the highest probability to “no prison time” because these challenges, combined with the extraordinary circumstances of his removal from power, could lead to dismissal, acquittal, or a negotiated resolution before or after trial. Shorter or longer sentences appear less likely given the pretrial status, procedural timeline, and potential diplomatic or immunity-based exits from the case.