Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal charges in the Southern District of New York for narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine trafficking, and weapons offenses following his January 3, 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas. He and his wife have pleaded not guilty and remain in pretrial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, with a June 30 court date pending. The leading “no prison time” outcome reflects trader focus on potential dismissal motions citing head-of-state immunity, the legality of the extraterritorial seizure, or prisoner-of-war status, alongside historical precedents like the Noriega prosecution. The sizable “60+” share tracks the statutory maximum penalties and the strength of the superseding indictment’s evidence of regime-linked trafficking networks. A wide field persists because procedural rulings, plea negotiations, or trial evidence could still shift outcomes before sentencing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucune peine de prison 35%
60+ 25%
20–40 17.0%
<20 11.0%
$566,988 Vol.
$566,988 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
Aucune peine de prison
35%
<20
11%
20–40
15%
40–60
6%
60+
25%
Aucune peine de prison 35%
60+ 25%
20–40 17.0%
<20 11.0%
$566,988 Vol.
$566,988 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
Aucune peine de prison
$382,553 Vol.
35%
<20
$76,691 Vol.
11%
20–40
$50,298 Vol.
15%
40–60
$20,195 Vol.
6%
60+
$37,254 Vol.
25%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal charges in the Southern District of New York for narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine trafficking, and weapons offenses following his January 3, 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas. He and his wife have pleaded not guilty and remain in pretrial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, with a June 30 court date pending. The leading “no prison time” outcome reflects trader focus on potential dismissal motions citing head-of-state immunity, the legality of the extraterritorial seizure, or prisoner-of-war status, alongside historical precedents like the Noriega prosecution. The sizable “60+” share tracks the statutory maximum penalties and the strength of the superseding indictment’s evidence of regime-linked trafficking networks. A wide field persists because procedural rulings, plea negotiations, or trial evidence could still shift outcomes before sentencing.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Volume
$566,988Date de fin
31 déc. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal charges in the Southern District of New York for narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine trafficking, and weapons offenses following his January 3, 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas. He and his wife have pleaded not guilty and remain in pretrial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, with a June 30 court date pending. The leading “no prison time” outcome reflects trader focus on potential dismissal motions citing head-of-state immunity, the legality of the extraterritorial seizure, or prisoner-of-war status, alongside historical precedents like the Noriega prosecution. The sizable “60+” share tracks the statutory maximum penalties and the strength of the superseding indictment’s evidence of regime-linked trafficking networks. A wide field persists because procedural rulings, plea negotiations, or trial evidence could still shift outcomes before sentencing.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$566,988Date de fin
31 déc. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal charges in the Southern District of New York for narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine trafficking, and weapons offenses following his January 3, 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas. He and his wife have pleaded not guilty and remain in pretrial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, with a June 30 court date pending. The leading “no prison time” outcome reflects trader focus on potential dismissal motions citing head-of-state immunity, the legality of the extraterritorial seizure, or prisoner-of-war status, alongside historical precedents like the Noriega prosecution. The sizable “60+” share tracks the statutory maximum penalties and the strength of the superseding indictment’s evidence of regime-linked trafficking networks. A wide field persists because procedural rulings, plea negotiations, or trial evidence could still shift outcomes before sentencing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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