**Strong trader consensus favoring "No" (93.3%) reflects the brief remaining window through December 2026 and the low background rate of large events.** USGS long-term forecasts indicate roughly a 60% chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater quake in the Los Angeles region over any 30-year period, implying an annualized probability well below 3-4% for an M6.5+ event within the defined 50-mile radius. Recent seismic activity has remained limited to minor quakes, with no M5+ events near central Los Angeles in 2026 and only isolated moderate activity farther afield. Earthquake forecasting relies on statistical models rather than precise short-term prediction, and no official alerts from the USGS or Southern California Earthquake Center indicate elevated risk in the immediate term. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected foreshock sequence or rapid fault slip that escalates to mainshock magnitude within weeks, though such precursors are rare and not currently observed.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTremblement de terre de magnitude 6,5 + à Los Angeles avant 2027 ?
Tremblement de terre de magnitude 6,5 + à Los Angeles avant 2027 ?
7% chance
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
7% chance
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.**Strong trader consensus favoring "No" (93.3%) reflects the brief remaining window through December 2026 and the low background rate of large events.** USGS long-term forecasts indicate roughly a 60% chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater quake in the Los Angeles region over any 30-year period, implying an annualized probability well below 3-4% for an M6.5+ event within the defined 50-mile radius. Recent seismic activity has remained limited to minor quakes, with no M5+ events near central Los Angeles in 2026 and only isolated moderate activity farther afield.
Earthquake forecasting relies on statistical models rather than precise short-term prediction, and no official alerts from the USGS or Southern California Earthquake Center indicate elevated risk in the immediate term. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected foreshock sequence or rapid fault slip that escalates to mainshock magnitude within weeks, though such precursors are rare and not currently observed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$16,533Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.**Strong trader consensus favoring "No" (93.3%) reflects the brief remaining window through December 2026 and the low background rate of large events.** USGS long-term forecasts indicate roughly a 60% chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater quake in the Los Angeles region over any 30-year period, implying an annualized probability well below 3-4% for an M6.5+ event within the defined 50-mile radius. Recent seismic activity has remained limited to minor quakes, with no M5+ events near central Los Angeles in 2026 and only isolated moderate activity farther afield.
Earthquake forecasting relies on statistical models rather than precise short-term prediction, and no official alerts from the USGS or Southern California Earthquake Center indicate elevated risk in the immediate term. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected foreshock sequence or rapid fault slip that escalates to mainshock magnitude within weeks, though such precursors are rare and not currently observed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$16,533Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strong trader consensus favoring "No" (93.3%) reflects the brief remaining window through December 2026 and the low background rate of large events.** USGS long-term forecasts indicate roughly a 60% chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater quake in the Los Angeles region over any 30-year period, implying an annualized probability well below 3-4% for an M6.5+ event within the defined 50-mile radius. Recent seismic activity has remained limited to minor quakes, with no M5+ events near central Los Angeles in 2026 and only isolated moderate activity farther afield. Earthquake forecasting relies on statistical models rather than precise short-term prediction, and no official alerts from the USGS or Southern California Earthquake Center indicate elevated risk in the immediate term. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected foreshock sequence or rapid fault slip that escalates to mainshock magnitude within weeks, though such precursors are rare and not currently observed.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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