The robust 50/50 profit-sharing partnership on intismeran autogene, reinforced by the August 19, 2026, Phase 3 INTerpath-001 success in resected melanoma showing statistically significant gains in recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival, underpins trader consensus against a 2026 Merck-Moderna deal at 90.1% implied probability for no. Merck has instead executed bolt-on acquisitions such as Terns Pharmaceuticals to diversify ahead of Keytruda’s 2028 U.S. patent cliff, while Moderna advances independent manufacturing scale-up and additional oncology trials. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include accelerated regulatory needs, manufacturing bottlenecks at scale, or sharper valuation alignment amid broader sector consolidation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
10% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
10% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The robust 50/50 profit-sharing partnership on intismeran autogene, reinforced by the August 19, 2026, Phase 3 INTerpath-001 success in resected melanoma showing statistically significant gains in recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival, underpins trader consensus against a 2026 Merck-Moderna deal at 90.1% implied probability for no. Merck has instead executed bolt-on acquisitions such as Terns Pharmaceuticals to diversify ahead of Keytruda’s 2028 U.S. patent cliff, while Moderna advances independent manufacturing scale-up and additional oncology trials. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include accelerated regulatory needs, manufacturing bottlenecks at scale, or sharper valuation alignment amid broader sector consolidation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 19, 2026, 3:58 PM ET
Volume
$458Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 19, 2026, 3:58 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The robust 50/50 profit-sharing partnership on intismeran autogene, reinforced by the August 19, 2026, Phase 3 INTerpath-001 success in resected melanoma showing statistically significant gains in recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival, underpins trader consensus against a 2026 Merck-Moderna deal at 90.1% implied probability for no. Merck has instead executed bolt-on acquisitions such as Terns Pharmaceuticals to diversify ahead of Keytruda’s 2028 U.S. patent cliff, while Moderna advances independent manufacturing scale-up and additional oncology trials. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include accelerated regulatory needs, manufacturing bottlenecks at scale, or sharper valuation alignment amid broader sector consolidation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$458Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 19, 2026, 3:58 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The robust 50/50 profit-sharing partnership on intismeran autogene, reinforced by the August 19, 2026, Phase 3 INTerpath-001 success in resected melanoma showing statistically significant gains in recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival, underpins trader consensus against a 2026 Merck-Moderna deal at 90.1% implied probability for no. Merck has instead executed bolt-on acquisitions such as Terns Pharmaceuticals to diversify ahead of Keytruda’s 2028 U.S. patent cliff, while Moderna advances independent manufacturing scale-up and additional oncology trials. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include accelerated regulatory needs, manufacturing bottlenecks at scale, or sharper valuation alignment amid broader sector consolidation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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