Narendra Modi's position as India's prime minister remains secure through December 2026, with the next general election scheduled no earlier than 2029. Recent state assembly victories, including a decisive May 2026 sweep in West Bengal that expanded the National Democratic Alliance's control to 21 states and territories, have reinforced the Bharatiya Janata Party's organizational strength and electoral momentum. Modi's government continues to hold a working majority in Parliament following the 2024 national results, and no significant health events, internal party challenges, or legislative defeats have altered his leadership. Traders therefore assign an 88.3 percent probability to the "No" outcome, viewing any early exit as unlikely absent unforeseen disruptions before the resolution date.