Steph Curry’s contract situation drives the tight spread across dozens of teams in this market. With one year remaining on his Warriors deal, the 38-year-old becomes eligible for a two-year, $136.7 million extension on August 29, 2026. Golden State has repeatedly stated its intent to keep the franchise face through retirement, yet front-office comments about the post-Curry era and Curry’s own remarks on roster flexibility have left open the possibility he tests free agency in summer 2027. Recent injury management and the team’s middling 2025-26 results add to uncertainty without confirming any departure. The wisdom of crowds reflected in the 48–50% cluster across nearly every franchise underscores how far off and fluid the outcome remains, with no confirmed roster moves or firm indications shifting the implied probabilities.