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Politique·Élections Françaises

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

icon for Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Politique·Élections Françaises

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

NOUVEAU
30 avr. 2027
Polymarket

$2,952 Vol.

Polymarket
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Marine Le Pen

$209 Vol.

12%

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Jordan Bardella

$226 Vol.

80%

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Éric Zemmour

$60 Vol.

5%

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Édouard Philippe

$1 Vol.

45%

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David Lisnard

$9 Vol.

5%

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Xavier Bertrand

$164 Vol.

4%

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Laurent Wauquiez

$50 Vol.

4%

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François Ruffin

$126 Vol.

4%

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Gabriel Attal

$0 Vol.

22%

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Bruno Retailleau

$200 Vol.

8%

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François Hollande

$21 Vol.

6%

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Raphaël Glucksmann

$25 Vol.

21%

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$314 Vol.

43%

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Marine Tondelier

$10 Vol.

6%

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Fabien Roussel

$50 Vol.

6%

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Olivier Faure

$50 Vol.

6%

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Dominique de Villepin

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7%

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Ségolène Royal

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4%

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François Asselineau

$208 Vol.

4%

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Clémentine Autain

$73 Vol.

4%

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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$0 Vol.

3%

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Michel Barnier

$57 Vol.

3%

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Valérie Pécresse

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3%

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François Bayrou

$12 Vol.

3%

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Élisabeth Borne

$50 Vol.

4%

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Yaël Braun-Pivet

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3%

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Jean Castex

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26%

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Gérald Darmanin

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7%

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Carole Delga

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4%

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Bernard Cazeneuve

$56 Vol.

6%

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Manuel Bompard

$50 Vol.

5%

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Mathilde Panot

$50 Vol.

3%

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Other

$92 Vol.

35%

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Sarah Knafo

$38 Vol.

5%

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Juan Branco

$121 Vol.

3%

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Clémence Guetté

$81 Vol.

4%

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Sébastien Lecornu

$6 Vol.

4%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leads recent first-round polling for the April 2027 presidential election and is widely viewed as the frontrunner to reach the runoff, benefiting from party consolidation after Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction and pending July 2026 appeal on her eligibility ban. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has shown gains on the left, while center-right figures such as Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal register stronger runoff potential against Bardella. A crowded field of declared and potential candidates from multiple parties, combined with France’s fragmented parliament since the 2024 snap legislative elections, increases uncertainty over which challenger will join Bardella in the second round. The two-week runoff format and historical “republican front” dynamics remain key variables.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$2,952
Date de fin
30 avr. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leads recent first-round polling for the April 2027 presidential election and is widely viewed as the frontrunner to reach the runoff, benefiting from party consolidation after Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction and pending July 2026 appeal on her eligibility ban. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has shown gains on the left, while center-right figures such as Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal register stronger runoff potential against Bardella. A crowded field of declared and potential candidates from multiple parties, combined with France’s fragmented parliament since the 2024 snap legislative elections, increases uncertainty over which challenger will join Bardella in the second round. The two-week runoff format and historical “republican front” dynamics remain key variables.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$2,952
Date de fin
30 avr. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

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Questions fréquentes

« Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 37 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Jordan Bardella » à 80%, suivi de « Édouard Philippe » à 46%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 80¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 80% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jun 1, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? », parcourez les 37 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? » est « Jordan Bardella » à 80%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 80% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Édouard Philippe » à 46%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.