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icon for Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Politique·France

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

icon for Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Politique·France

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

$190,904 Vol.

29 avr. 2027
Polymarket

$190,904 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen

$12,226 Vol.

89%

icon for Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe

$2,648 Vol.

49%

icon for Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$10,852 Vol.

39%

icon for David Lisnard

David Lisnard

$48,416 Vol.

10%

icon for Jordan Bardella

Jordan Bardella

$22,594 Vol.

9%

icon for François Hollande

François Hollande

$12,090 Vol.

7%

icon for Raphaël Glucksmann

Raphaël Glucksmann

$5,040 Vol.

7%

icon for Gabriel Attal

Gabriel Attal

$2,823 Vol.

7%

icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$936 Vol.

6%

icon for Dominique de Villepin

Dominique de Villepin

$1,463 Vol.

5%

icon for Manuel Bompard

Manuel Bompard

$5,325 Vol.

5%

icon for Sébastien Lecornu

Sébastien Lecornu

$1,536 Vol.

5%

icon for Éric Zemmour

Éric Zemmour

$695 Vol.

5%

icon for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$799 Vol.

5%

icon for François Bayrou

François Bayrou

$1,518 Vol.

4%

icon for Juan Branco

Juan Branco

$2,762 Vol.

3%

icon for Bernard Cazeneuve

Bernard Cazeneuve

$5,606 Vol.

3%

icon for Bruno Retailleau

Bruno Retailleau

$2,246 Vol.

3%

icon for Sarah Knafo

Sarah Knafo

$4,781 Vol.

3%

icon for Élisabeth Borne

Élisabeth Borne

$4,099 Vol.

3%

icon for Clémentine Autain

Clémentine Autain

$3,904 Vol.

2%

icon for Laurent Wauquiez

Laurent Wauquiez

$758 Vol.

2%

icon for Carole Delga

Carole Delga

$2,865 Vol.

2%

icon for Ségolène Royal

Ségolène Royal

$3,523 Vol.

2%

icon for François Ruffin

François Ruffin

$4,779 Vol.

2%

icon for Jean Castex

Jean Castex

$1,282 Vol.

2%

icon for Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussel

$6,265 Vol.

2%

icon for Clémence Guetté

Clémence Guetté

$2,090 Vol.

2%

icon for Marine Tondelier

Marine Tondelier

$3,022 Vol.

2%

icon for Yaël Braun-Pivet

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$3,076 Vol.

2%

icon for François Asselineau

François Asselineau

$1,769 Vol.

2%

icon for Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse

$1,557 Vol.

2%

icon for Gérald Darmanin

Gérald Darmanin

$1,993 Vol.

1%

icon for Xavier Bertrand

Xavier Bertrand

$1,541 Vol.

1%

icon for Michel Barnier

Michel Barnier

$2,253 Vol.

1%

icon for Mathilde Panot

Mathilde Panot

$1,661 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent polling shows a National Rally candidate—Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella—leading the projected first round on 18 April 2027 by a wide margin at 32–36 percent, positioning the party’s nominee as the near-certain leader advancing to the runoff under France’s two-round system. The contest for the second spot remains fluid among Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Raphaël Glucksmann, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with Mélenchon gaining ground in some scenarios while centrist options split the anti-RN vote. Le Pen’s appeal ruling in July 2026 reduced her ineligibility period and allowed her candidacy, while the left’s October primary and ongoing declarations on the right and center continue to shape the field. Traders weigh these first-round dynamics heavily, as historical patterns and current surveys indicate the RN’s structural advantage is unlikely to shift without major late developments before April.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$190,904
Date de fin
30 avr. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent polling shows a National Rally candidate—Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella—leading the projected first round on 18 April 2027 by a wide margin at 32–36 percent, positioning the party’s nominee as the near-certain leader advancing to the runoff under France’s two-round system. The contest for the second spot remains fluid among Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Raphaël Glucksmann, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with Mélenchon gaining ground in some scenarios while centrist options split the anti-RN vote. Le Pen’s appeal ruling in July 2026 reduced her ineligibility period and allowed her candidacy, while the left’s October primary and ongoing declarations on the right and center continue to shape the field. Traders weigh these first-round dynamics heavily, as historical patterns and current surveys indicate the RN’s structural advantage is unlikely to shift without major late developments before April.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$190,904
Date de fin
30 avr. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...

Connexes

icon for Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

38%
Oui
icon for Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

96%
icon for Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

63%

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 36 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Marine Le Pen » à 89%, suivi de « Édouard Philippe » à 49%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 89¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 89% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? » a généré $190.9K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jun 1, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? », parcourez les 36 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? » est « Marine Le Pen » à 89%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 89% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Édouard Philippe » à 49%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.