Jess Wilson, Liberal leader since late 2025, leads trader pricing for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election at 63 percent implied probability, reflecting sustained Coalition two-party-preferred leads of 55-45 in recent surveys and her preferred-premier edge over Ben Carroll. Carroll’s late-July elevation as Labor premier followed Jacinta Allan’s resignation amid caucus pressure over construction-sector integrity issues and weak personal ratings; he immediately launched a royal commission but has not reversed Labor’s primary-vote slump into the mid-20s or One Nation’s rise near 22-24 percent. Wilson’s policy focus on justice reforms, bail changes, housing supply, and cost-of-living measures has maintained opposition momentum, while structural challenges for the incumbent government continue to shape crowd-sourced assessments ahead of the poll.