Andris Kulbergs holds an 82.5% implied probability as the next Latvian prime minister, driven by his May 2026 appointment after Evika Siliņa's resignation amid coalition collapse over drone incursions and defense handling. He secured confirmation with a 66-vote majority through a four-party alliance of United List, New Unity, National Alliance, and Union of Greens and Farmers, emphasizing border security, anti-drone measures, budget stabilization, and anti-corruption efforts ahead of the October 2026 Saeima election. This incumbency and parliamentary support position him strongly for continuity, while lower probabilities for figures such as Jūlija Stepaņenko or Arvils Ašeradens reflect limited current momentum among opposition or alternative coalition builders in the short resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAndris Kulbergs 83%
Jūlija Stepaņenko 5.2%
Arvils Ašeradens 3.6%
Ilze Indriksone 3.3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 oct. 2026
Andris Kulbergs
83%
Jūlija Stepaņenko
5%
Arvils Ašeradens
4%
Ilze Indriksone
3%
Andris Šuvajevs
3%
Viktors Valainis
<1%
Svetlana Čulkova
<1%
Ainārs Šlesers
<1%
Andris Kulbergs 83%
Jūlija Stepaņenko 5.2%
Arvils Ašeradens 3.6%
Ilze Indriksone 3.3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 oct. 2026
Andris Kulbergs
$2,173 Vol.
83%
Jūlija Stepaņenko
$250 Vol.
5%
Arvils Ašeradens
$106 Vol.
4%
Ilze Indriksone
$107 Vol.
3%
Andris Šuvajevs
$152 Vol.
3%
Viktors Valainis
$132 Vol.
<1%
Svetlana Čulkova
$146 Vol.
<1%
Ainārs Šlesers
$295 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Saeima of Latvia are scheduled to take place on October 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who assumes the office of Prime Minister of Latvia following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the Cabinet led by the individual must receive the confidence of the Saeima in a vote of confidence. Any interim, caretaker, or acting Prime Minister, or a Prime Minister whose Cabinet has not received the confidence of the Saeima will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Saeima and the Government of Latvia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Andris Kulbergs holds an 82.5% implied probability as the next Latvian prime minister, driven by his May 2026 appointment after Evika Siliņa's resignation amid coalition collapse over drone incursions and defense handling. He secured confirmation with a 66-vote majority through a four-party alliance of United List, New Unity, National Alliance, and Union of Greens and Farmers, emphasizing border security, anti-drone measures, budget stabilization, and anti-corruption efforts ahead of the October 2026 Saeima election. This incumbency and parliamentary support position him strongly for continuity, while lower probabilities for figures such as Jūlija Stepaņenko or Arvils Ašeradens reflect limited current momentum among opposition or alternative coalition builders in the short resolution window.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Saeima of Latvia are scheduled to take place on October 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who assumes the office of Prime Minister of Latvia following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the Cabinet led by the individual must receive the confidence of the Saeima in a vote of confidence. Any interim, caretaker, or acting Prime Minister, or a Prime Minister whose Cabinet has not received the confidence of the Saeima will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Saeima and the Government of Latvia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who assumes the office of Prime Minister of Latvia following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the Cabinet led by the individual must receive the confidence of the Saeima in a vote of confidence. Any interim, caretaker, or acting Prime Minister, or a Prime Minister whose Cabinet has not received the confidence of the Saeima will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Saeima and the Government of Latvia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 11, 2026, 11:17 AM ET
Volume
$3,360Date de fin
3 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 11:17 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Saeima of Latvia are scheduled to take place on October 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who assumes the office of Prime Minister of Latvia following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the Cabinet led by the individual must receive the confidence of the Saeima in a vote of confidence. Any interim, caretaker, or acting Prime Minister, or a Prime Minister whose Cabinet has not received the confidence of the Saeima will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Saeima and the Government of Latvia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Andris Kulbergs holds an 82.5% implied probability as the next Latvian prime minister, driven by his May 2026 appointment after Evika Siliņa's resignation amid coalition collapse over drone incursions and defense handling. He secured confirmation with a 66-vote majority through a four-party alliance of United List, New Unity, National Alliance, and Union of Greens and Farmers, emphasizing border security, anti-drone measures, budget stabilization, and anti-corruption efforts ahead of the October 2026 Saeima election. This incumbency and parliamentary support position him strongly for continuity, while lower probabilities for figures such as Jūlija Stepaņenko or Arvils Ašeradens reflect limited current momentum among opposition or alternative coalition builders in the short resolution window.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Saeima of Latvia are scheduled to take place on October 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who assumes the office of Prime Minister of Latvia following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the Cabinet led by the individual must receive the confidence of the Saeima in a vote of confidence. Any interim, caretaker, or acting Prime Minister, or a Prime Minister whose Cabinet has not received the confidence of the Saeima will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Saeima and the Government of Latvia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who assumes the office of Prime Minister of Latvia following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the Cabinet led by the individual must receive the confidence of the Saeima in a vote of confidence. Any interim, caretaker, or acting Prime Minister, or a Prime Minister whose Cabinet has not received the confidence of the Saeima will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Saeima and the Government of Latvia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,360Date de fin
3 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 11:17 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Andris Kulbergs holds an 82.5% implied probability as the next Latvian prime minister, driven by his May 2026 appointment after Evika Siliņa's resignation amid coalition collapse over drone incursions and defense handling. He secured confirmation with a 66-vote majority through a four-party alliance of United List, New Unity, National Alliance, and Union of Greens and Farmers, emphasizing border security, anti-drone measures, budget stabilization, and anti-corruption efforts ahead of the October 2026 Saeima election. This incumbency and parliamentary support position him strongly for continuity, while lower probabilities for figures such as Jūlija Stepaņenko or Arvils Ašeradens reflect limited current momentum among opposition or alternative coalition builders in the short resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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