Recent polls show the Parti Québécois holding steady near 29% support ahead of the October 5 election, placing it in minority territory with projected averages of 46–52 seats across models from 338Canada, Qc125 and The Writ. This reflects strong francophone backing offset by vote-splitting among federalist parties and numerous close contests against the CAQ, which has lost ground while the Liberals have rebounded modestly. The PQ’s referendum commitment and related fiscal estimates have drawn scrutiny in recent debates without shifting its polling position. These dynamics align with elevated market probabilities for outcomes under 55 seats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour<50 41%
55-59 16%
50-54 13%
60-64 12%
$16,322 Vol.
$16,322 Vol.
5 oct. 2026
<50
36%
50-54
13%
55-59
16%
60-64
12%
65-69
8%
70-74
6%
75-79
4%
80+
4%
<50 41%
55-59 16%
50-54 13%
60-64 12%
$16,322 Vol.
$16,322 Vol.
5 oct. 2026
<50
$4,833 Vol.
36%
50-54
$1,385 Vol.
13%
55-59
$836 Vol.
16%
60-64
$983 Vol.
12%
65-69
$3,262 Vol.
8%
70-74
$2,636 Vol.
6%
75-79
$1,290 Vol.
4%
80+
$1,097 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls show the Parti Québécois holding steady near 29% support ahead of the October 5 election, placing it in minority territory with projected averages of 46–52 seats across models from 338Canada, Qc125 and The Writ. This reflects strong francophone backing offset by vote-splitting among federalist parties and numerous close contests against the CAQ, which has lost ground while the Liberals have rebounded modestly. The PQ’s referendum commitment and related fiscal estimates have drawn scrutiny in recent debates without shifting its polling position. These dynamics align with elevated market probabilities for outcomes under 55 seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Marché ouvert : Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$16,322Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls show the Parti Québécois holding steady near 29% support ahead of the October 5 election, placing it in minority territory with projected averages of 46–52 seats across models from 338Canada, Qc125 and The Writ. This reflects strong francophone backing offset by vote-splitting among federalist parties and numerous close contests against the CAQ, which has lost ground while the Liberals have rebounded modestly. The PQ’s referendum commitment and related fiscal estimates have drawn scrutiny in recent debates without shifting its polling position. These dynamics align with elevated market probabilities for outcomes under 55 seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$16,322Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show the Parti Québécois holding steady near 29% support ahead of the October 5 election, placing it in minority territory with projected averages of 46–52 seats across models from 338Canada, Qc125 and The Writ. This reflects strong francophone backing offset by vote-splitting among federalist parties and numerous close contests against the CAQ, which has lost ground while the Liberals have rebounded modestly. The PQ’s referendum commitment and related fiscal estimates have drawn scrutiny in recent debates without shifting its polling position. These dynamics align with elevated market probabilities for outcomes under 55 seats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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