**OpenAI and Anthropic have both published detailed internal metrics showing AI systems now handle the majority of code writing and research tasks, yet explicitly state they have not reached full recursive self-improvement where models autonomously design and train capable successors without meaningful human oversight.** Anthropic’s June 2026 “When AI Builds Itself” report highlighted Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code by May 2026 (up from low single digits before its early 2025 coding agent launch) alongside 8x engineer output gains and early end-to-end agent experiments on safety problems. OpenAI’s September 2026 updates confirmed an “automated research intern” milestone—delivering 3.1 agent workdays per human workday on directed tasks—while targeting a full automated researcher by March 2028 and warning that safe, aligned RSI remains unsolved. These disclosures, paired with leadership calls from Dario Amodei and others for paced development and verifiable pauses, frame current trader sentiment around measurable acceleration short of the threshold that would trigger a market-resolving announcement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
31 octobre 2026
6%
31 décembre 2026
35%
$1,379 Vol.
31 octobre 2026
$684 Vol.
6%
31 décembre 2026
$695 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**OpenAI and Anthropic have both published detailed internal metrics showing AI systems now handle the majority of code writing and research tasks, yet explicitly state they have not reached full recursive self-improvement where models autonomously design and train capable successors without meaningful human oversight.** Anthropic’s June 2026 “When AI Builds Itself” report highlighted Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code by May 2026 (up from low single digits before its early 2025 coding agent launch) alongside 8x engineer output gains and early end-to-end agent experiments on safety problems. OpenAI’s September 2026 updates confirmed an “automated research intern” milestone—delivering 3.1 agent workdays per human workday on directed tasks—while targeting a full automated researcher by March 2028 and warning that safe, aligned RSI remains unsolved. These disclosures, paired with leadership calls from Dario Amodei and others for paced development and verifiable pauses, frame current trader sentiment around measurable acceleration short of the threshold that would trigger a market-resolving announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET
Volume
$1,379Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**OpenAI and Anthropic have both published detailed internal metrics showing AI systems now handle the majority of code writing and research tasks, yet explicitly state they have not reached full recursive self-improvement where models autonomously design and train capable successors without meaningful human oversight.** Anthropic’s June 2026 “When AI Builds Itself” report highlighted Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code by May 2026 (up from low single digits before its early 2025 coding agent launch) alongside 8x engineer output gains and early end-to-end agent experiments on safety problems. OpenAI’s September 2026 updates confirmed an “automated research intern” milestone—delivering 3.1 agent workdays per human workday on directed tasks—while targeting a full automated researcher by March 2028 and warning that safe, aligned RSI remains unsolved. These disclosures, paired with leadership calls from Dario Amodei and others for paced development and verifiable pauses, frame current trader sentiment around measurable acceleration short of the threshold that would trigger a market-resolving announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,379Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**OpenAI and Anthropic have both published detailed internal metrics showing AI systems now handle the majority of code writing and research tasks, yet explicitly state they have not reached full recursive self-improvement where models autonomously design and train capable successors without meaningful human oversight.** Anthropic’s June 2026 “When AI Builds Itself” report highlighted Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code by May 2026 (up from low single digits before its early 2025 coding agent launch) alongside 8x engineer output gains and early end-to-end agent experiments on safety problems. OpenAI’s September 2026 updates confirmed an “automated research intern” milestone—delivering 3.1 agent workdays per human workday on directed tasks—while targeting a full automated researcher by March 2028 and warning that safe, aligned RSI remains unsolved. These disclosures, paired with leadership calls from Dario Amodei and others for paced development and verifiable pauses, frame current trader sentiment around measurable acceleration short of the threshold that would trigger a market-resolving announcement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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