OpenAI holds a modest edge in the market-implied odds for first announcing recursive self-improvement due to its more explicit internal benchmarks and public statements on automated AI research. In September 2026, Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki detailed OpenAI’s progress toward an “automated AI researcher,” including achieved “research intern” agents that deliver 3.1 agent-workdays per human workday and an RSI Index showing measurable gains in model-driven experiment design and training optimization. These build on GPT-5.6 and GPT-6 Astra releases that prioritized self-improvement pipelines. Anthropic reports substantial Claude-driven code output—over 80 percent of merges by mid-2026 and 26 percent of R&D tasks led autonomously by August—yet frames the work as incremental and repeatedly cautions that full RSI remains distant and risky. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s forward-leaning timeline commitments and claimed lead more heavily than Anthropic’s measured safety emphasis ahead of any formal announcement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOpenAI
57% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2027
OpenAI
57% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2027
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI holds a modest edge in the market-implied odds for first announcing recursive self-improvement due to its more explicit internal benchmarks and public statements on automated AI research. In September 2026, Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki detailed OpenAI’s progress toward an “automated AI researcher,” including achieved “research intern” agents that deliver 3.1 agent-workdays per human workday and an RSI Index showing measurable gains in model-driven experiment design and training optimization. These build on GPT-5.6 and GPT-6 Astra releases that prioritized self-improvement pipelines. Anthropic reports substantial Claude-driven code output—over 80 percent of merges by mid-2026 and 26 percent of R&D tasks led autonomously by August—yet frames the work as incremental and repeatedly cautions that full RSI remains distant and risky. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s forward-leaning timeline commitments and claimed lead more heavily than Anthropic’s measured safety emphasis ahead of any formal announcement.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 18, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Volume
$491Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2026, 12:42 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI holds a modest edge in the market-implied odds for first announcing recursive self-improvement due to its more explicit internal benchmarks and public statements on automated AI research. In September 2026, Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki detailed OpenAI’s progress toward an “automated AI researcher,” including achieved “research intern” agents that deliver 3.1 agent-workdays per human workday and an RSI Index showing measurable gains in model-driven experiment design and training optimization. These build on GPT-5.6 and GPT-6 Astra releases that prioritized self-improvement pipelines. Anthropic reports substantial Claude-driven code output—over 80 percent of merges by mid-2026 and 26 percent of R&D tasks led autonomously by August—yet frames the work as incremental and repeatedly cautions that full RSI remains distant and risky. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s forward-leaning timeline commitments and claimed lead more heavily than Anthropic’s measured safety emphasis ahead of any formal announcement.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$491Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2026, 12:42 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...OpenAI holds a modest edge in the market-implied odds for first announcing recursive self-improvement due to its more explicit internal benchmarks and public statements on automated AI research. In September 2026, Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki detailed OpenAI’s progress toward an “automated AI researcher,” including achieved “research intern” agents that deliver 3.1 agent-workdays per human workday and an RSI Index showing measurable gains in model-driven experiment design and training optimization. These build on GPT-5.6 and GPT-6 Astra releases that prioritized self-improvement pipelines. Anthropic reports substantial Claude-driven code output—over 80 percent of merges by mid-2026 and 26 percent of R&D tasks led autonomously by August—yet frames the work as incremental and repeatedly cautions that full RSI remains distant and risky. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s forward-leaning timeline commitments and claimed lead more heavily than Anthropic’s measured safety emphasis ahead of any formal announcement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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