Meta's approximately $1.85 trillion market capitalization as of early October 2026 underpins the 93% implied probability it will exceed OpenAI's valuation by year-end, reflecting its public equity trading at elevated multiples supported by $228 billion trailing revenue and consistent earnings growth. OpenAI's most recent closed round valued it at $852 billion post-money after raising $122 billion in March, with ongoing talks for a $30 billion bridge round at roughly $1.4 trillion pre-money still leaving it well below Meta even after potential dilution or secondary adjustments. Traders price in Meta's scale advantages in advertising and AI feature deployment alongside OpenAI's delayed IPO timeline beyond 2026. A sharp Meta share-price decline or unexpectedly large OpenAI funding success could narrow the gap, though current fundamentals and liquidity differentials sustain the consensus.