Mahmoud Abbas’s October 10 decree postponing legislative elections from November 28, 2026, until September 11, 2027—while combining them with a presidential vote—directly supports the 61.5% implied probability for further delay. The Palestinian Authority cited Israeli restrictions on East Jerusalem and Gaza access, ongoing security conditions after the Gaza conflict, and the need for national dialogue as barriers, echoing the 2021 precedent. Internal Fatah divisions, limited factional consensus, and Western calls from France, Britain, Canada, and Australia for prompt elections without additional postponements highlight persistent implementation challenges. Traders appear to weigh these structural and political obstacles more heavily than reform pressure when assessing near-term prospects for voting.