The NFL single-season rushing touchdowns record of 28, set by LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, remains unmatched after two decades, with recent league highs of 18. Entering the 2026-27 campaign, trader consensus slightly favors no breakthrough at 53.5% amid projections showing top backs like Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Derrick Henry likely finishing in the low-to-mid teens despite heavy goal-line roles and favorable offensive schemes. Competitive balance stems from the potential for a true workhorse in a run-heavy system to approach 20-plus scores, offset by persistent backfield committees, injury histories, and the physical toll of volume carries. A late-season surge from an elite rusher or QB like Josh Allen, combined with favorable weather or matchup volume, could shift sentiment toward yes, while typical regression and shared workloads reinforce the current lean.