Morena leads the Quintana Roo Congress election market at 72.5% implied probability, reflecting its dominant position in the state legislature and strong voter identification ahead of the June 2027 contest for 25 seats. Recent surveys show Morena with 39-47% party preference, well ahead of PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano, while its allies PVEM and PT add coalition strength. The party holds 13 of 25 seats in the current XVIII Legislature and benefits from high gubernatorial approval under Mara Lezama plus federal infrastructure investments. Opposition parties register single-digit probabilities consistent with their limited recent performance in state contests. Election preparations, including INE-IEQROO coordination and candidate processes, are underway, with the concurrent gubernatorial race likely shaping legislative outcomes through turnout and alliances.