The Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 2026 decision to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent, driven by elevated headline inflation pressures from higher global energy costs amid the Middle East situation, has positioned no change as the dominant outcome for the June meeting with an 81 percent market-implied probability. Recent RBA forecasts show inflation peaking near 4.8 percent in the June quarter before easing, while the labor market is projected to soften modestly with unemployment rising toward 4.6 percent, supporting trader consensus that the recent tightening provides sufficient room to pause and monitor incoming data. This aligns with economist expectations of steady policy for the remainder of 2026, though an increase at 22 percent implied odds could still occur if June quarter CPI or wage growth surprises to the upside. The negligible 0.4 percent probability of a decrease reflects the central bank’s focus on returning inflation to its 2–3 percent target band without premature easing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun changement 81%
Augmentation 21%
Diminution <1%
$25,462 Vol.
$25,462 Vol.
16 juin 2026
Diminution
<1%
Aucun changement
81%
Augmentation
21%
Aucun changement 81%
Augmentation 21%
Diminution <1%
$25,462 Vol.
$25,462 Vol.
16 juin 2026
Diminution
$7,827 Vol.
<1%
Aucun changement
$8,790 Vol.
81%
Augmentation
$8,845 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.The Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 2026 decision to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent, driven by elevated headline inflation pressures from higher global energy costs amid the Middle East situation, has positioned no change as the dominant outcome for the June meeting with an 81 percent market-implied probability. Recent RBA forecasts show inflation peaking near 4.8 percent in the June quarter before easing, while the labor market is projected to soften modestly with unemployment rising toward 4.6 percent, supporting trader consensus that the recent tightening provides sufficient room to pause and monitor incoming data. This aligns with economist expectations of steady policy for the remainder of 2026, though an increase at 22 percent implied odds could still occur if June quarter CPI or wage growth surprises to the upside. The negligible 0.4 percent probability of a decrease reflects the central bank’s focus on returning inflation to its 2–3 percent target band without premature easing.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Volume
$25,462Date de fin
16 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.The Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 2026 decision to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent, driven by elevated headline inflation pressures from higher global energy costs amid the Middle East situation, has positioned no change as the dominant outcome for the June meeting with an 81 percent market-implied probability. Recent RBA forecasts show inflation peaking near 4.8 percent in the June quarter before easing, while the labor market is projected to soften modestly with unemployment rising toward 4.6 percent, supporting trader consensus that the recent tightening provides sufficient room to pause and monitor incoming data. This aligns with economist expectations of steady policy for the remainder of 2026, though an increase at 22 percent implied odds could still occur if June quarter CPI or wage growth surprises to the upside. The negligible 0.4 percent probability of a decrease reflects the central bank’s focus on returning inflation to its 2–3 percent target band without premature easing.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volume
$25,462Date de fin
16 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 2026 decision to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent, driven by elevated headline inflation pressures from higher global energy costs amid the Middle East situation, has positioned no change as the dominant outcome for the June meeting with an 81 percent market-implied probability. Recent RBA forecasts show inflation peaking near 4.8 percent in the June quarter before easing, while the labor market is projected to soften modestly with unemployment rising toward 4.6 percent, supporting trader consensus that the recent tightening provides sufficient room to pause and monitor incoming data. This aligns with economist expectations of steady policy for the remainder of 2026, though an increase at 22 percent implied odds could still occur if June quarter CPI or wage growth surprises to the upside. The negligible 0.4 percent probability of a decrease reflects the central bank’s focus on returning inflation to its 2–3 percent target band without premature easing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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