Russia's political system remains a consolidated autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, with power centralized among loyal security services, military elites, and United Russia structures following his 2024 reelection. No verified coup attempt has materialized in 2026 despite March–May intelligence reports citing tightened Kremlin security, reduced public appearances, and concerns over figures like Sergei Shoigu. Opposition remains marginalized, constitutional term extensions support continuity through 2036, and recent events including Putin's June economic forum address and August territorial visit reflect ongoing institutional control. Trader consensus at 93.5% for no attempt reflects the absence of elite fractures or successful challenges capable of altering this equilibrium before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour7% chance
$118,354 Vol.
$118,354 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
7% chance
$118,354 Vol.
$118,354 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system remains a consolidated autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, with power centralized among loyal security services, military elites, and United Russia structures following his 2024 reelection. No verified coup attempt has materialized in 2026 despite March–May intelligence reports citing tightened Kremlin security, reduced public appearances, and concerns over figures like Sergei Shoigu. Opposition remains marginalized, constitutional term extensions support continuity through 2036, and recent events including Putin's June economic forum address and August territorial visit reflect ongoing institutional control. Trader consensus at 93.5% for no attempt reflects the absence of elite fractures or successful challenges capable of altering this equilibrium before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$118,354Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system remains a consolidated autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, with power centralized among loyal security services, military elites, and United Russia structures following his 2024 reelection. No verified coup attempt has materialized in 2026 despite March–May intelligence reports citing tightened Kremlin security, reduced public appearances, and concerns over figures like Sergei Shoigu. Opposition remains marginalized, constitutional term extensions support continuity through 2036, and recent events including Putin's June economic forum address and August territorial visit reflect ongoing institutional control. Trader consensus at 93.5% for no attempt reflects the absence of elite fractures or successful challenges capable of altering this equilibrium before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$118,354Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's political system remains a consolidated autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, with power centralized among loyal security services, military elites, and United Russia structures following his 2024 reelection. No verified coup attempt has materialized in 2026 despite March–May intelligence reports citing tightened Kremlin security, reduced public appearances, and concerns over figures like Sergei Shoigu. Opposition remains marginalized, constitutional term extensions support continuity through 2036, and recent events including Putin's June economic forum address and August territorial visit reflect ongoing institutional control. Trader consensus at 93.5% for no attempt reflects the absence of elite fractures or successful challenges capable of altering this equilibrium before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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