The SAVE Act (H.R. 22) passed the House multiple times, including versions in April 2025 and February 2026, yet remains stalled in the Senate with no path to enactment before year-end. Senate rules require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, but Republicans hold 53 seats and have secured no Democratic support despite repeated attempts to attach the measure to must-pass vehicles such as the NDAA or budget reconciliation. Senate leadership has signaled the bill is dead on arrival, and recent procedural maneuvers through July 2026 produced no breakthrough. This procedural gridlock and narrow partisan margin explain the 93.5% trader-implied probability against the bill becoming law in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$190,044 Vol.
$190,044 Vol.
Oui
$190,044 Vol.
$190,044 Vol.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The SAVE Act (H.R. 22) passed the House multiple times, including versions in April 2025 and February 2026, yet remains stalled in the Senate with no path to enactment before year-end. Senate rules require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, but Republicans hold 53 seats and have secured no Democratic support despite repeated attempts to attach the measure to must-pass vehicles such as the NDAA or budget reconciliation. Senate leadership has signaled the bill is dead on arrival, and recent procedural maneuvers through July 2026 produced no breakthrough. This procedural gridlock and narrow partisan margin explain the 93.5% trader-implied probability against the bill becoming law in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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