South African Reserve Bank communications and recent CPI prints underscore fuel price volatility from Middle East and Ukraine supply disruptions as the dominant driver of 2026 inflation expectations. August 2026 headline inflation registered 4.4% year-over-year, below consensus, yet the SARB lifted its 2026 forecast to 4.4% and now projects a peak above 5% in late 2026 before easing toward the 3% target by end-2027. With the policy rate at 7.25% following the September 25-basis-point hike, market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over the duration and second-round effects of the energy shock, as evidenced by the tight clustering around the 4.4–5.0% range. The next CPI release on October 21 and November MPC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.