**Traders assign a 64% probability to "No" on Starship achieving full reusability before 2027 because the upper stage has yet to demonstrate tower catch or repeated flight, even after 13 integrated tests through July 2026.** V3 vehicles have delivered consecutive Super Heavy booster catches on the Mechazilla arms and an intact Ship 40 splashdown in the Indian Ocean that preserved the heat shield for post-flight inspection. However, all flights remain suborbital, orbital refueling and ship recovery have not occurred, and rapid turnaround of the same hardware without major refurbishment remains unproven. The heat shield—long identified as the hardest technical barrier—survived Flight 13 better than prior attempts but still requires extensive validation for multiple missions. Flight 14, targeted for September 2026, is expected to attempt the first orbital profile and ship catch; success there would mark meaningful progress but leaves little margin for the additional refights and operational cadence needed by year-end. These gaps in demonstrated end-to-end reuse sustain the market's measured skepticism.