Recent V3 Starship test flights, including Flight 13's intact heat shield performance after reentry and controlled splashdown on July 24, 2026, combined with prior Super Heavy booster tower catches, underpin the 65.5% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2028. These milestones demonstrate progress on rapid turnaround via Raptor 3 engines, refurbished tiles, and tower-arm recovery, with Elon Musk targeting the first ship reflight by early 2027. Regulatory approvals for orbital profiles and tower catches of the upper stage, plus in-space refueling demos, remain key near-term catalysts that could accelerate or delay operational reuse. While historical timelines have slipped, the current cadence supports trader consensus on achieving both-stage recovery well ahead of the deadline.