SpaceX’s rapid iteration on Starship Version 3 hardware, combined with demonstrated booster tower catches and intact ship reentries in recent integrated flights, underpins the 73.5% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2028. Flight 13 in July 2026 validated V3 avionics, heatshield performance, and Raptor relight capability during a soft splashdown, while Flight 14 targets the first orbital attempt with potential upper-stage and booster catches. Traders see the aggressive cadence—13 flights total, eight successes—and ongoing propellant-transfer tests as strong signals that both stages can achieve rapid reuse within the next 18 months, though heatshield durability and regulatory timelines remain key swing factors.