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Qu'est-ce que le S&P 500 (SPX) fermera à la fin de 2026 ?

icon for Qu'est-ce que le S&P 500 (SPX) fermera à la fin de 2026 ?
Finance·Masquer Du Nouveau

Qu'est-ce que le S&P 500 (SPX) fermera à la fin de 2026 ?

déc. 31

déc. 31

>8 000 $ 35%

7 500 $ - 8 000 $ 23%

7 000–7 500 $ 19%

6 500 $ - 7 000 $ 12%

Polymarket

$39,806 Vol.

>8 000 $ 35%

7 500 $ - 8 000 $ 23%

7 000–7 500 $ 19%

6 500 $ - 7 000 $ 12%

Polymarket

$39,806 Vol.

<6 000 $

$20,544 Vol.

6%

6 000 $ - 6 500 $

$2,312 Vol.

8%

6 500 $ - 7 000 $

$4,408 Vol.

12%

7 000–7 500 $

$2,460 Vol.

19%

7 500 $ - 8 000 $

$4,035 Vol.

23%

>8 000 $

$6,048 Vol.

38%

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Robust corporate earnings growth, especially in AI-driven technology sectors projecting 20-25% gains for 2026, stands as the primary driver behind Polymarket traders assigning the highest implied probability (37.5%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000. With the index recently hitting record levels near 7,800 after a 14% year-to-date advance, the market-implied odds cluster in the $7,000–$8,000 range reflect sustained optimism around resilient U.S. economic data, including July CPI at 3.4% and unemployment near 4.1%. Steady Fed policy at 3.50–3.75% and expectations for continued earnings momentum outweigh lingering inflation risks from tariffs and energy prices, though lower-probability outcomes below 7,000 price in potential valuation compression if growth disappoints.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$39,806
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Robust corporate earnings growth, especially in AI-driven technology sectors projecting 20-25% gains for 2026, stands as the primary driver behind Polymarket traders assigning the highest implied probability (37.5%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000. With the index recently hitting record levels near 7,800 after a 14% year-to-date advance, the market-implied odds cluster in the $7,000–$8,000 range reflect sustained optimism around resilient U.S. economic data, including July CPI at 3.4% and unemployment near 4.1%. Steady Fed policy at 3.50–3.75% and expectations for continued earnings momentum outweigh lingering inflation risks from tariffs and energy prices, though lower-probability outcomes below 7,000 price in potential valuation compression if growth disappoints.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$39,806
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

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Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Qu'est-ce que le S&P 500 (SPX) fermera à la fin de 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « >8 000 $ » à 38%, suivi de « 7 500 $ - 8 000 $ » à 23%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 38¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 38% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Qu'est-ce que le S&P 500 (SPX) fermera à la fin de 2026 ? » a généré $39.8K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 6, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Qu'est-ce que le S&P 500 (SPX) fermera à la fin de 2026 ? », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Qu'est-ce que le S&P 500 (SPX) fermera à la fin de 2026 ? » est « >8 000 $ » à 38%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 38% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 7 500 $ - 8 000 $ » à 23%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Qu'est-ce que le S&P 500 (SPX) fermera à la fin de 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.