**Recent statements from senior justices have reinforced trader expectations of continuity on the U.S. Supreme Court through the end of 2026.** Justice Samuel Alito, age 76, explicitly told the Wall Street Journal in early August that he intends to serve at least another term, directly addressing and dismissing speculation triggered by an erroneous June report. Clarence Thomas, the oldest justice at 78, has likewise given no indication of stepping down despite occasional conservative calls for strategic timing ahead of potential Senate shifts. No other justices have signaled retirement or faced health-related developments that would create an opening before December 31. With the court’s term beginning in October and historical patterns showing that most departures are announced well in advance, the absence of confirmed exits or imminent announcements in the final months of the year underpins the 80.5% implied probability that no vacancy will occur in 2026.