Greg Abbott maintains an 84.5% implied probability in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race due to the state’s structural Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising, combined with his status as a three-term incumbent. Gina Hinojosa secured the Democratic nomination with nearly 59% in the March primary but trails at 16% amid a general election environment where recent July and August polls from Emerson College, the Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott leading by one to six points. Traders continue to emphasize Texas’s partisan lean and Abbott’s established organization ahead of the November 3 contest, even as name recognition for Hinojosa rises and the race tightens within the margin of error in multiple surveys. Scheduled debates and economic or energy developments remain potential variables.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur du Texas
Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur du Texas
$55,884 Vol.
$55,884 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Républicain
85%
Démocrate
16%
$55,884 Vol.
$55,884 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Républicain
$24,866 Vol.
85%
Démocrate
$31,018 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Greg Abbott maintains an 84.5% implied probability in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race due to the state’s structural Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising, combined with his status as a three-term incumbent. Gina Hinojosa secured the Democratic nomination with nearly 59% in the March primary but trails at 16% amid a general election environment where recent July and August polls from Emerson College, the Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott leading by one to six points. Traders continue to emphasize Texas’s partisan lean and Abbott’s established organization ahead of the November 3 contest, even as name recognition for Hinojosa rises and the race tightens within the margin of error in multiple surveys. Scheduled debates and economic or energy developments remain potential variables.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$55,884Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Greg Abbott maintains an 84.5% implied probability in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race due to the state’s structural Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising, combined with his status as a three-term incumbent. Gina Hinojosa secured the Democratic nomination with nearly 59% in the March primary but trails at 16% amid a general election environment where recent July and August polls from Emerson College, the Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott leading by one to six points. Traders continue to emphasize Texas’s partisan lean and Abbott’s established organization ahead of the November 3 contest, even as name recognition for Hinojosa rises and the race tightens within the margin of error in multiple surveys. Scheduled debates and economic or energy developments remain potential variables.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$55,884Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Greg Abbott maintains an 84.5% implied probability in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race due to the state’s structural Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising, combined with his status as a three-term incumbent. Gina Hinojosa secured the Democratic nomination with nearly 59% in the March primary but trails at 16% amid a general election environment where recent July and August polls from Emerson College, the Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott leading by one to six points. Traders continue to emphasize Texas’s partisan lean and Abbott’s established organization ahead of the November 3 contest, even as name recognition for Hinojosa rises and the race tightens within the margin of error in multiple surveys. Scheduled debates and economic or energy developments remain potential variables.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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