The 50% implied probability on any team deploying a stand-in at TI 2026 reflects balanced uncertainty around roster stability heading into the Shanghai event. With the group-stage roster lock just days away on August 12 and the main event set for mid-to-late August at the Oriental Sports Center, most invited squads and recent qualifier winners have settled lineups following regional competition. However, international travel to China introduces persistent variables, including visa processing timelines for players from multiple regions, occasional last-minute health or personal issues, and the historical precedent of substitutes at prior Shanghai-hosted Internationals. Recent form and team announcements show no widespread disruptions yet, but the compressed schedule between qualifiers and the main stage keeps the door open for isolated changes. Developments such as confirmed visa approvals or public roster finalizations would likely tilt sentiment toward “no,” while any verified player withdrawal or travel delay could quickly favor “yes.”