**Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements tied to its possession of the Russian S-400 system.** US law, including CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA, prohibits transfers until Ankara no longer possesses the system, provides credible assurances against future Russian acquisitions, and meets certification standards. President Trump’s June–July 2026 statements during Oval Office meetings and the NATO summit in Ankara raised expectations by signaling intent to lift sanctions and consider sales, prompting Turkish talks on transferring the S-400 to a Gulf state such as the UAE. However, the July 22 State Department letter to Congress confirmed Turkey has not satisfied the legal conditions, and August reporting indicated stalled transfer negotiations with the S-400 still in Turkish hands. Additional factors include opposition from Greece and Israel, congressional notification and oversight requirements, and ongoing US-Turkey engagement on NATO cooperation and regional issues. Engine sales for Turkey’s Kaan fighter have advanced separately, but full F-35 readmission hinges on verifiable resolution of the S-400 issue within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$43,428 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 décembre 2026
10%
30 juin 2027
28%
$43,428 Vol.
31 décembre 2026
$31,959 Vol.
10%
30 juin 2027
$11,468 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.**Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements tied to its possession of the Russian S-400 system.** US law, including CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA, prohibits transfers until Ankara no longer possesses the system, provides credible assurances against future Russian acquisitions, and meets certification standards.
President Trump’s June–July 2026 statements during Oval Office meetings and the NATO summit in Ankara raised expectations by signaling intent to lift sanctions and consider sales, prompting Turkish talks on transferring the S-400 to a Gulf state such as the UAE. However, the July 22 State Department letter to Congress confirmed Turkey has not satisfied the legal conditions, and August reporting indicated stalled transfer negotiations with the S-400 still in Turkish hands.
Additional factors include opposition from Greece and Israel, congressional notification and oversight requirements, and ongoing US-Turkey engagement on NATO cooperation and regional issues. Engine sales for Turkey’s Kaan fighter have advanced separately, but full F-35 readmission hinges on verifiable resolution of the S-400 issue within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$43,428Date de fin
1 juil. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.**Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements tied to its possession of the Russian S-400 system.** US law, including CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA, prohibits transfers until Ankara no longer possesses the system, provides credible assurances against future Russian acquisitions, and meets certification standards.
President Trump’s June–July 2026 statements during Oval Office meetings and the NATO summit in Ankara raised expectations by signaling intent to lift sanctions and consider sales, prompting Turkish talks on transferring the S-400 to a Gulf state such as the UAE. However, the July 22 State Department letter to Congress confirmed Turkey has not satisfied the legal conditions, and August reporting indicated stalled transfer negotiations with the S-400 still in Turkish hands.
Additional factors include opposition from Greece and Israel, congressional notification and oversight requirements, and ongoing US-Turkey engagement on NATO cooperation and regional issues. Engine sales for Turkey’s Kaan fighter have advanced separately, but full F-35 readmission hinges on verifiable resolution of the S-400 issue within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$43,428Date de fin
1 juil. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements tied to its possession of the Russian S-400 system.** US law, including CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA, prohibits transfers until Ankara no longer possesses the system, provides credible assurances against future Russian acquisitions, and meets certification standards. President Trump’s June–July 2026 statements during Oval Office meetings and the NATO summit in Ankara raised expectations by signaling intent to lift sanctions and consider sales, prompting Turkish talks on transferring the S-400 to a Gulf state such as the UAE. However, the July 22 State Department letter to Congress confirmed Turkey has not satisfied the legal conditions, and August reporting indicated stalled transfer negotiations with the S-400 still in Turkish hands. Additional factors include opposition from Greece and Israel, congressional notification and oversight requirements, and ongoing US-Turkey engagement on NATO cooperation and regional issues. Engine sales for Turkey’s Kaan fighter have advanced separately, but full F-35 readmission hinges on verifiable resolution of the S-400 issue within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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