**Recent Turkish political developments center on the August 2026 passage of the “Terror-Free Türkiye” framework law with 467 parliamentary votes, which has created cross-party momentum around national unity and potential reforms but has not extended to a formal constitutional referendum.** Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stated on August 12 that drafting a new civilian constitution is a “political obligation” given the improved climate, with earlier comments from officials pointing to possible adoption in 2026–2027. However, the ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 328 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 needed to send amendments to a referendum or the 400 required for immediate effect without one. No draft text or referendum date has been announced, and recent focus remains on implementing the terror law, monitoring PKK disarmament, and exploring term-limit workarounds such as early elections rather than a broad constitutional vote. Traders therefore assign an 86% probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of concrete procedural steps or secured majorities in the remaining months of 2026.