Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon holds a commanding position in the safely Republican TX-04 House race, reflected in trader consensus at 85.5% for the GOP following his dominant March 3 primary win with 81.5% against minimal opposition. Challenger Democrat Jason Pearce, who narrowly secured his nomination 52%-48%, faces steep barriers in the R+16 Cook PVI district stretching from Dallas suburbs to the Arkansas border, where Fallon won prior generals by 66-75% margins amid strong Republican turnout. Fallon's fundraising dwarfs Pearce's with over $1 million cash-on-hand versus under $1,000 as of late March, underscoring limited Democratic path-to-victory. No major developments have emerged since the primaries, with the November 3 general over five months away.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTX-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
TX-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
86%
Parti démocrate
15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$1,656 Vol.
86%
Parti démocrate
$1,842 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon holds a commanding position in the safely Republican TX-04 House race, reflected in trader consensus at 85.5% for the GOP following his dominant March 3 primary win with 81.5% against minimal opposition. Challenger Democrat Jason Pearce, who narrowly secured his nomination 52%-48%, faces steep barriers in the R+16 Cook PVI district stretching from Dallas suburbs to the Arkansas border, where Fallon won prior generals by 66-75% margins amid strong Republican turnout. Fallon's fundraising dwarfs Pearce's with over $1 million cash-on-hand versus under $1,000 as of late March, underscoring limited Democratic path-to-victory. No major developments have emerged since the primaries, with the November 3 general over five months away.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$3,498Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon holds a commanding position in the safely Republican TX-04 House race, reflected in trader consensus at 85.5% for the GOP following his dominant March 3 primary win with 81.5% against minimal opposition. Challenger Democrat Jason Pearce, who narrowly secured his nomination 52%-48%, faces steep barriers in the R+16 Cook PVI district stretching from Dallas suburbs to the Arkansas border, where Fallon won prior generals by 66-75% margins amid strong Republican turnout. Fallon's fundraising dwarfs Pearce's with over $1 million cash-on-hand versus under $1,000 as of late March, underscoring limited Democratic path-to-victory. No major developments have emerged since the primaries, with the November 3 general over five months away.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$3,498Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon holds a commanding position in the safely Republican TX-04 House race, reflected in trader consensus at 85.5% for the GOP following his dominant March 3 primary win with 81.5% against minimal opposition. Challenger Democrat Jason Pearce, who narrowly secured his nomination 52%-48%, faces steep barriers in the R+16 Cook PVI district stretching from Dallas suburbs to the Arkansas border, where Fallon won prior generals by 66-75% margins amid strong Republican turnout. Fallon's fundraising dwarfs Pearce's with over $1 million cash-on-hand versus under $1,000 as of late March, underscoring limited Democratic path-to-victory. No major developments have emerged since the primaries, with the November 3 general over five months away.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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